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9780801869419
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April 29, 2003
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What Are the Chances?

Voodoo Deaths, Office Gossip, and Other Adventures in Probability

Using examples drawn from daily life and history, the author explains what probability is and how it works.

Our lives are governed by chance. But what, exactly, is chance? In this book, accomplished statistician and storyteller Bart K. Holland takes us on a tour of the world of probability. Weaving together tales from real life—from the spread of the bubonic plague in medieval Europe or the number of Prussian cavalrymen kicked to death by their horses, through IQ test results and deaths by voodoo curse, to why you have to wait in line for rides at Disneyworld—Holland captures the reader's imagination with surprising examples of probability in action, everyday events that can profoundly affect our lives but are controlled by just one number.

As Holland explains, even chance events are governed by the laws of probability and follow regular patterns called statistical laws. He shows how such laws are successfully applied, with great benefit, in fields as diverse as the insurance industry, the legal system, medical research, aerospace engineering, and climatology. Whether you have only a distant recollection of high school algebra or use differential equations every day, this book offers examples of the impact of chance that will amuse and astonish.

About the Author

Bart K. Holland is an associate professor of biostatistics and epidemiology in the Department of Preventive Medicine and Community Health at New Jersey Medical School.

Reviews

"All 140 pages of What Are the Chances? are enjoyable and convey much wisdom in an area where gut feelings and rash actions frequently prevail."

- Colin Keay - The Physicist

"An extremely fun read... Insightful and full of interesting applications."

"Holland captures the reader's imagination with surprising examples of probability in action, everyday events that can profoundly affect our lives. It will amuse and astonish the reader."

"Holland Captures the reader's imagination with surprising examples of probability in action, everyday events that can profoundly affect our lives but are controlled by just one number."

"What Are the Chances? is an enjoyable read. And painlessly instructive as well... [a] charming book."

- James Gerrand - The Skeptic

"What Are the Chances? will give you a whole new outlook... readable, comprehendable, and often funny."

- Marilis Hornidge - The Courier-Gazette

"If you have ever wondered about the chances of a Prussian cavalryman being kicked to death by his horse or if you prefer to work out your own life expectancy by staring at life tables, then Bart Holland's excellent primer on probability is a great place to start. In a time when anecdote and panic seem to influence public policy more than objective analysis, Holland has provided a welcome reminder of the power of the analytical approach."

- Simon Singh - New Scientist

"Will entertain and inform people who like statistical puzzles and may nudge those who don't toward statistical literacy... Offers explanations of such probability-based phenomena as why buses come in clumps, how life insurance table work, and how diseases spread. While maintaining a sense of fun, Holland still manages to work in some equations and a little of the history behind different kinds of statistical reasoning."

"Written to make minimal (almost zero) use of formulas or algebraic skills. Covers a remarkable number of topics [which are] introduced to stimulate the interest of the average reader."

"This is a book I can happily recommend... I learnt something from every chapter."

- Quentin L. Burrell - Significance

"The author writes fluently and with authority and he covers a host of different situations... The strength of this book is the wealth of examples of applied probability theory which will provide useful support for any statistics course in the classroom."

- Gerry Leversha - Mathematical Gazette

"An excellent source of interesting examples of probability and statistics in action."

- James V. Rauff - Mathematics and Computer Education

Endorsements

"Though there are many books on the market that deal with applications of the theory of probabilities and statistics, none contain the variety of examples taken from everyday life found in this book. Holland first arouses the curiosity of the reader, then satisfies it in a remarkable way."

- Florin Diacu, University of Victoria, BC, Pacific Institute for the Mathematical Sciences
Johns Hopkins University Press
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9780801869419 : what-are-the-chances-holland
Hardback
160 Pages
$34.00 USD
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Electronic book text
160 Pages
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Other Titles by Bart K. Holland

Exposed!

Henri Broch - foreword by Georges Charpak - translated by Bart K. Holland
Aug 2009 - Johns Hopkins University Press
$31.00 USD - Hardback

Debunked!

Georges Charpak and Henri Broch - translated by Bart K. Holland
Apr 2004 - Johns Hopkins University Press
$35.00 USD - Hardback

Probability without Equations

Bart K. Holland
Dec 1997 - Johns Hopkins University Press
$32.00 USD - Paperback / softback
$32.00 USD - Electronic book text

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Least Squares Data Fitting with Applications

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