Tomorrow's Troubles

The first examination of predictive technology from the perspective of Catholic theology

Probabilistic predictions of future risk govern much of society. Policymakers and private companies design institutional structures to manage risk by controlling the behavior of citizens and consumers, using new technologies that comb through past data to predict and shape future action. Choosing between possible future paths — all with their own risks and opportunities — can cause anxiety as our every decision becomes a calculation to achieve the most optimal outcome.

Tomorrow's Troubles is the first book to use virtue ethics to analyze these pressing issues. Over three parts, moral theologian Paul Scherz uses a theological analysis of risk and practical reason to suggest ways to enjoy the positive benefits of these predictive technologies while constraining their dangerous aspects. Part One shows how risk-based decision theory reorients our relationships to the future through knowledge of possible dangers and foregone opportunities, and how this deceptive hope for total security is instantiated in politics and business. Scherz presents this view of temporality as problematic because it encourages a desire for stability through one's own efforts instead of reliance on God.

Part Two examines how new predictive models use data to influence behavior. While this presents many dangers, Scherz argues that the largest problem is that predictive models do not address individual reason and free will. Part Three focuses on how we can take a positive Christian approach to risk by examining theological frameworks of responsibility. Instead of dwelling on a future we cannot control, we can use our past experiences and the Christian tradition to focus on discerning God's will in the present. Scherz's thoughtful new framework will help Christians benefit from the positive aspects of predictive technologies while recognizing God's role in our lives and our futures.